查看星期日, 27 4月 2003歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Apr 27 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 117 在 27 Apr 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 26-2100Z到 27-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 338 (N18W85) produced an M2.5/Sf at 26/2340Z and an M1.7/Sf at 27/1532Z which were the largest flares of the period. This region was again responsible for the vast majority of the activity observed today. Proximity to the west limb hinders analysis of changes in magnetic structure today. Region 344 (N16W00) showed slight growth today and retains a beta-gamma-delta structure. The weak delta complex is evident in the northwestern quadrant of the dominant trailing spot. Region 337 (S14W40) underwent rapid growth during the period adding many additional spots to the south of the main body of this group. This region also depicts a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. A 34 degree solar filament erupted yesterday at approximately 26/2000Z which resulted in a streamer CME that does not appear as though it will become geoeffective No new regions were numbered today.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 has begun to transit the disk but remains capable of producing a major flare.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 26-2100Z 至 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An increase of 150 km/s in the solar wind speed during the period is believed to be the result of a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through the interval. High latitude minor storm conditions are possible on day one and into day two due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. 事件機率 28 Apr 至 30 Apr
M級70%50%50%
X級15%10%05%
質子05%01%01%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       27 Apr 154
  預測的   28 Apr-30 Apr  155/160/155
  90天平均值        27 Apr 127
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 26 Apr  009/015
  估算值     Afr/Ap 27 Apr  012/012
  預測的    Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  015/015-012/015-012/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 28 Apr 至 30 Apr
A. 中緯度
可見35%30%25%
小風暴20%15%10%
特大強風暴10%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見45%35%30%
小風暴30%25%15%
特大強風暴15%10%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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