查看星期三, 7 5月 2003歷史檔案
太陽活動報表
本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 May 07 2200 UTC由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理
美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告
SDF 編號 127 在 07 May 2003 上以 2200Z 發行IA. 太陽活動區域和 06-2100Z到 07-2100Z的活動分析 Solar activity has been low. Today's flare activity
consisted of occasional C-class flares, mostly from Region 348
(S34W80) and Region 349 (S14W86). The largest event of the day,
however, was a C5 at 2049 UTC from a new region behind east limb at
about N17. A 10 degree filament near S10W18 disappeared between 1342
UTC and 1403 UTC.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated
M-class event sometime during the next three days. An overall
downward trend in activity levels and in the background levels is
expected over the next three days with the departure of regions 348
and 349.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 06-2100Z 至 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels for most of
the day. An interval of major storm levels was observed at mid and
high latitudes from 0600-0900 UTC. Today's activity resulted from
the persistence of a high speed solar wind stream (velocities
ranging from 670 to 750 km/s) accompanied by weakly to moderately
negative Bz (-5 to -10 nT). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
continue to be at high levels.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours, with a chance
for some isolated storm intervals, as the current high speed solar
wind stream is expected to continue. A slight decline in activity
levels to unsettled to active is expected on the second and third
days. Conditions should stay somewhat elevated relative to quiet,
however, as a new coronal hole will be rotating into a geoeffective
location.
III. 事件機率 08 May 至 10 May
| M級 | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| X級 | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| 質子 | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| 碳核算金融聯盟 | green | ||
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
觀測的 07 May 110 預測的 08 May-10 May 105/100/095 90天平均值 07 May 128
V. 地磁 A 指數
觀測的 Afr/Ap 06 May 015/023 估算值 Afr/Ap 07 May 032/037 預測的 Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 015/020-012/015-012/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 08 May 至 10 May
| A. 中緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| 小風暴 | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| 特大強風暴 | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. 高緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| 小風暴 | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| 特大強風暴 | 15% | 15% | 15% |
所有時間均採用 UTC 時間
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