太陽活動報表

查看星期四, 15 5月 2003歷史檔案

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本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。

太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 May 15 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 135 在 15 May 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 14-2100Z到 15-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity has been low. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 361 (N09E39) and Region 362 (S10E77).

IB. 太陽活動預報

Solar activity is expected to be very low, with possible increase in activity over the next few days due to active regions emerging from the east limb. New region 362 may produce isolated flare activity.

IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 14-2100Z 至 15-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due to a high speed solar wind stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. 地球物理活動預報

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the next three days. Solar wind speeds should continue to reduce over the next few days, and may cause isolated minor storm levels on day one.

III. 事件機率 16 May 至 18 May

M級	10%	15%	20%
X級	01%	01%	01%
質子	01%	01%	01%
碳核算金融聯盟	green

IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量

  觀測的       15 May 099
  預測的   16 May-18 May  105/110/120
  90天平均值        15 May 123

V. 地磁 A 指數

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 14 May  017/027
  估算值     Afr/Ap 15 May  015/022
  預測的    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  010/015-010/015-015/015

VI. 地磁活動機率 16 May 至 18 May

A. 中緯度
可見	25%	25%	25%
小風暴	15%	10%	10%
特大強風暴	05%	01%	01%

B. 高緯度
可見	35%	35%	35%
小風暴	15%	15%	15%
特大強風暴	05%	05%	05%

VII. Comments The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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