查看星期四, 29 5月 2003歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 May 29 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 149 在 29 May 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 28-2100Z到 29-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 365 (S07W45) once again produced a major flare early in the period. An X1.1/2b event occurred at 29/0105Z that had an associated Tenflare, Type IV and Type II (estimated shock velocity of 1170 km/s.) radio sweeps. SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts a very symmetric full halo CME resulting from the event. This region remains extremely complex (a beta-gamma-delta structure) although the penumbral coverage has shown little growth during the period. Region 368 (S32W15) also managed to produce a notable flare today, an M1.5/1f event occurred at 29/0217Z. This region did show some magnetic growth during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 365 continues to show the potential to produce major flare activity.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 28-2100Z 至 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm levels. A recurrent coronal hole was responsible for the initial elevated conditions. At approximately 29/1155Z the first of two transients associated with the first two X-class flares from late on the 27th and early on the 28th passed the NASA/ACE space craft. The second occurred at approximately 29/1830Z and was responsible for the severe storm conditions seen late in the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit achieved event levels at 28/2335Z and reached a maximum of 121 pfu at 29/1530Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active to major storm levels with severe storm condition anticipated. Another transient passage is expected between 30/0600 and 1200Z on day one of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes should remain above threshold levels through day one of the interval.
III. 事件機率 30 May 至 01 Jun
M級75%75%75%
X級25%25%25%
質子80%50%25%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       29 May 138
  預測的   30 May-01 Jun  145/140/135
  90天平均值        29 May 125
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 28 May  022/036
  估算值     Afr/Ap 29 May  050/060
  預測的    Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  050/060-025/040-015/025
VI. 地磁活動機率 30 May 至 01 Jun
A. 中緯度
可見25%50%30%
小風暴35%25%15%
特大強風暴35%15%05%
B. 高緯度
可見20%30%35%
小風暴35%35%20%
特大強風暴40%30%15%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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