太陽活動報表

查看星期四, 19 6月 2003歷史檔案

前一張自轉面前一天月曆

下一天下一張自轉面

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。

太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Jun 19 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 170 在 19 Jun 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 18-2100Z到 19-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Flare activity was limited to several B-class flares. Region 386 (S07E30) lost penumbral coverage over the period although it does retain a delta magnetic structure in the dominant lead spot. Region 387 (N18E49) grew in both penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity since yesterday, a gamma structure is now evident in the trailing portion of the spot group. Newly numbered Region 388 (S03E08) produced a minor B-class flare early in the period.

IB. 太陽活動預報

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of producing an isolated major flare.

IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 18-2100Z 至 19-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active levels today. Minor storm conditions were observed at both middle and high latitudes between 19/0000 and 0300Z due to the influence of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded event threshold at 18/2050Z (reached a max of 24 pfu at 19/0450Z), ended at 19/1900Z and after careful review the event is believed to have been the result of the M6.8 x-ray flare from June 17. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels today.

IIB. 地球物理活動預報

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through the interval. Minor storm conditions may exist due to a transient passage during the first half of day one in response to the M6.8 x-ray flare from June 17.

III. 事件機率 20 Jun 至 22 Jun

M級	50%	50%	50%
X級	15%	15%	15%
質子	25%	15%	15%
碳核算金融聯盟	green

IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量

  觀測的       19 Jun 123
  預測的   20 Jun-22 Jun  125/125/125
  90天平均值        19 Jun 124

V. 地磁 A 指數

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 18 Jun  036/054
  估算值     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  023/025
  預測的    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  020/025-020/025-012/020

VI. 地磁活動機率 20 Jun 至 22 Jun

A. 中緯度
可見	40%	40%	25%
小風暴	15%	15%	10%
特大強風暴	10%	10%	05%

B. 高緯度
可見	50%	50%	40%
小風暴	20%	20%	15%
特大強風暴	10%	10%	10%

PLAIN GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. 99999

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間