太陽活動報表

查看星期日, 22 6月 2003歷史檔案

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本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。

太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Jun 22 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 173 在 22 Jun 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 21-2100Z到 22-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was low. Just a single C-class flare this period - a C1/Sf at 22/0949Z from Region 388 (S02W32). This region has shown little change this period and still contains some weak magnetic mixing. Moderately complex Region 386 (S06W08) still maintains a weak delta configuration, but was quiet this period as it continues to slowly decay. Region 387 (N18E10) is the largest region the visible disk, but was also quiet. A new region rotating around the east limb was numbered today as Region 390.

IB. 太陽活動預報

Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a small chance for an isolated low M-class flare from Regions 386, 387 and 388.

IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 21-2100Z 至 22-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active due to a high speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. 地球物理活動預報

The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active levels due to coronal hole high speed flow.

III. 事件機率 23 Jun 至 25 Jun

M級	25%	25%	25%
X級	05%	05%	05%
質子	05%	05%	05%
碳核算金融聯盟	green

IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量

  觀測的       22 Jun 110
  預測的   23 Jun-25 Jun  110/115/115
  90天平均值        22 Jun 126

V. 地磁 A 指數

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 21 Jun  016/023
  估算值     Afr/Ap 22 Jun  015/015
  預測的    Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  015/015-012/012-012/012

VI. 地磁活動機率 23 Jun 至 25 Jun

A. 中緯度
可見	35%	30%	30%
小風暴	15%	10%	10%
特大強風暴	05%	05%	05%

B. 高緯度
可見	40%	35%	35%
小風暴	20%	15%	15%
特大強風暴	10%	05%	05%

Comments K-Indices On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated, the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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