查看星期四, 3 7月 2003歷史檔案
太陽活動報表
本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Jul 03 2200 UTC由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理
美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告
SDF 編號 184 在 03 Jul 2003 上以 2200Z 發行IA. 太陽活動區域和 02-2100Z到 03-2100Z的活動分析 Solar activity was low. Regions 397 (N12E00) and 400
(N05E44) produced a few C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The
largest of these was a C5 at 02/2222 UTC from Region 400. Region 400
was active all day and has a dominant northeast-to-southwest
inversion line. Region 397 showed growth in the trailer portion of
the group, leading to the formation of two small delta
configurations.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. There is a good chance for M-class flare activity from
Region 397. In addition, the magnetic structure of Region 400
suggests that it is likely to build shear and this should lead to
frequent subflare activity.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 02-2100Z 至 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind
speeds increased up to around 600 km/s at 02/2300 UTC, but dropped
down to 500-550 km/s from 0100-1900 UTC. However, there appears to
be another solar wind speed increase in progress at this time. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the
past 24 hours.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next two days in response to a
favorably positioned coronal hole. There may also be isolated
periods of storm level activity. A gradual decline to unsettled to
active is expected on the third day.
III. 事件機率 04 Jul 至 06 Jul
| M級 | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X級 | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| 質子 | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| 碳核算金融聯盟 | green | ||
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
觀測的 03 Jul 132 預測的 04 Jul-06 Jul 135/138/141 90天平均值 03 Jul 123
V. 地磁 A 指數
觀測的 Afr/Ap 02 Jul 011/015 估算值 Afr/Ap 03 Jul 014/015 預測的 Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. 地磁活動機率 04 Jul 至 06 Jul
| A. 中緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| 小風暴 | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| 特大強風暴 | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. 高緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| 小風暴 | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| 特大強風暴 | 15% | 15% | 10% |
所有時間均採用 UTC 時間
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