Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of a few, low-level C-class subflares. Newly assigned Region 409 (N16E66) rotated more fully into view today and was one of the most active regions. This group is currently the largest on the disk and was the source of recent flare activity observed on and near the northeast limb during the last couple of days. Region 401 (S10W31) showed some development of new spots in the central part of the group but was stable and quiet. Two additional regions were assigned today: Region 408 (N13E23), a small newly emerged group, and Region 410 (S13E63), also a small group that has just rotated into view. A thirteen degree filament located near N26W08 disappeared between 0100-0900 UTC. Post-eruption arcades were visible in SXI and EIT-195 images.

Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event over the next three days, with Regions 409 and 401 the most likely sources.

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds remain somewhat elevated today (around 500-600 km/s), but are lower than yesterday and show an overall declining trend. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels today.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active over the next three days. Some persistence of today's activity is expected to linger into tomorrow. It is possible that transient flow may arrive sometime during the next three days from the M3 flare of 10 July or from any of the recent filament eruptions. However, ACE EPAM data do not indicate the presence of a strong interplanetary shock at this time, making transient drivers seem less probable than previously. The onset of effects from another high speed wind stream are expected on day two or day three as a new coronal hole will be rotating into favorable position.

  觀測的       13 Jul 127
  預測的   14 Jul-16 Jul  130/130/130
  90天平均值        13 Jul 125

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 12 Jul  025/046
  估算值     Afr/Ap 13 Jul  015/015
  預測的    Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  020/020-020/030-020/025