Solar activity has been moderate. There has been a steady series of C-class flares and a single M1.0 at 21/0827 UTC. Region 484 (N05E26) continues to grow, but at a lesser rate than yesterday. The region is now 1650 millionths with at least a 50% increase in magnetic intensity. A region just beyond the East limb, generated a strong CME at approximately 21/0300 UTC, but does not appear to be Earth-directed.

Solar activity is expected to remain moderate. Region 484, and the new Region approaching the East limb, are a combined threat to continue to generate C-class activity, with an occasional M-class flare. There is a slight chance for an isolated X-class event, and an even lesser chance for a proton-producing flare. By day three, Region 484 will near central meridian, and become a slightly higher threat for producing a flare event which could generate protons at near-Earth.

The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. A favorably positioned coronal hole is supporting a high-speed solar wind stream, which is in turn supporting elevated magnetic activity at Earth. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three days. The coronal hole will proceed out of geoeffective range around the second day, but a faint shock associated with a CME which occurred on the 19th should lightly impact Earth, once again elevating magnetic activity on day three.

  觀測的       21 Oct 152
  預測的   22 Oct-24 Oct  150/155/160
  90天平均值        21 Oct 114

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 20 Oct  020/030
  估算值     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  028/030
  預測的    Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  020/025-020/020-025/020