Solar activity has been high. Region 486 (S15E31) produced a long-duration X1.2/3n at 26/0654 UTC, with associated Type II and IV radio sweeps and a partial-halo CME observed on LASCO imagery with an estimated speed of 1245 km/s. Region 484 (N03W41) produced a long-duration X1.2/2n at 26/1819 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep and a partial-halo CME observed on Mauna Loa coronameter imagery. The rise in X-ray flux for this flare was observed at 1721, and 10 MeV proton flux began to rise at the ACE spacecraft at 1750 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit reached 10 pfu at 1825 and peaked at 332 pfu at 2020 UTC. An 18-degree filament erupted around S18W51 at 0346 UTC, and a 12-degree filament erupted at N00W55 at 0331 UTC. Both erupting filaments were observed on EIT imagery, and their respective CMEs were observed on LASCO imagery. Neither CME appears to be earth-directed. Regions 484 and 486 maintained their magnetic complexity, although Region 484 decayed slightly in size. The 10.7 cm flux value was flare-enhanced and is estimated due to solar activity at the time of the observation.

Solar activity is expected to be high. Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce C- and M-class flares, and X-class flares are possible.

The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active all three days, with possible minor and isolated major storm conditions on days two and three due to partial halo CMEs from both X flares observed today.

  觀測的       26 Oct 298
  預測的   27 Oct-29 Oct  200/200/170
  90天平均值        26 Oct 121

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 25 Oct  010/014
  估算值     Afr/Ap 26 Oct  008/015
  預測的    Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  010/015-015/020-015/015