Solar activity was at moderate levels. A number of X-ray events occurred on the southwest limb between 0757Z and 1330Z. The most likely source of this activity is Region 508 (S19, L=283) on the west limb. A C7 flare occurred at 0948Z and was followed by a significant long duration X-ray enhancement that peaked at 1145Z. This long duration enhancement is the likely source of a greater than 10 MeV proton event. An M1 flare was also observed at 1308Z.

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a slight chance of a proton producing flare from Region 508 beyond the west limb.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The long duration X-ray enhancement produced a greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 1505Z and reached a peak flux of 86 pfu at 1730Z. Current flux levels are still above threshold level but in a slow decline. A polar cap absorption is currently in progress.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 03 - 04 December. On 05 December activity may increase to active levels due to a coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began today is expected to end on 03 December.

  觀測的       02 Dec 139
  預測的   03 Dec-05 Dec  130/125/120
  90天平均值        02 Dec 136

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 01 Dec  009/010
  估算值     Afr/Ap 02 Dec  008/012
  預測的    Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  008/010-008/010-012/020