Solar activity was high. Region 646 (N13W60) emerged rapidly during the past 24 hours and produced three major flares: an M6 at 0017 UTC, an M5/1n at 0848 UTC, and an M6/1b at 1932 UTC. CME's were observed in association with the first and second major flares which were technically classified as halo events, although the majority of the mass erupted off the northwest limb. Region 646 grew from 70 to 220 millionths and has some magnetic complexity along a northeast-to-southwest inversion line. Region 649 (S10E64) is the largest group on the disk with an area of 350 millionths. The region produced numerous C-class events as well as two M-class flares: an M2 at 1208 UTC and an M1/Sf at 1838 UTC.

Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate, with Region 646 and 649 the most likely sources for activity. There is a fair chance for continued major flare activity, particularly out of Region 646.

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. Solar wind data countinue to show that the earth is under the influence of a high-speed stream driven by a coronal hole (with typical speeds today between 500 to 600 km/s). There was an enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons, which began around 0100 UTC and reached maximum values of about 1 PFU.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. Unsettled with some active periods at high latitudes is expected on the third day as a possible response to a glancing blow from one or the other of today's CMEs.

  觀測的       13 Jul 127
  預測的   14 Jul-16 Jul  135/140/140
  90天平均值        13 Jul 098

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 12 Jul  012/013
  估算值     Afr/Ap 13 Jul  012/015
  預測的    Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  010/012-010/012-012/020