Solar activity increased to moderate levels today. Region 687 (N10E39) produced an M2/1n flare at 22/0811Z that had an associated Type IV radio sweep and a Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity 521 km/sec. LASCO imagery depicted a CME shortly following this event which may have a weak Earth-bound component. The sunspot area in this region underwent strong growth during the period, adding penumbral coverage to the trailing cluster of spots in the group. Region 682 (S13W59) underwent little change today and produced a single low level B-class flare. Region 684 (S05E01) has shown rapid growth in sunspot area and magnetic structure during the period. Region 690 (N00E78) was numbered today.

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 687 is capable of producing further M-class flares and has a slight chance of producing an isolated major flare.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 23 and 24 October. A chance of isolated active conditions may occur on 25 October due to the potential for a glancing blow from the CME that resulted from the M2/1n flare mentioned in IA.

  觀測的       22 Oct 123
  預測的   23 Oct-25 Oct  125/130/125
  90天平均值        22 Oct 104

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 21 Oct  005/008
  估算值     Afr/Ap 22 Oct  004/005
  預測的    Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  004/005-005/005-010/010