Solar activity was high during the last 24 hours due to an M5/Sn flare from Region 696 (N09E32) at 1547 UTC. The flare was accompanied by type II and type IV radio sweeps, strong radio bursts, and an asymmetric halo CME with plane-of-sky velocity of about 900 km/s. The majority of the CME mass was observed over the northeast limb. Region 696 produced additional M-flares including an M1/1n at 0335 UTC (accompanied by type II and type IV sweeps and a bright, partial halo CME off the northeast limb), and an M1/Sf at 1826 UTC. The region has more than doubled in size, and of particular note is the emergence of positive polarity magnetic flux just ahead of the strong, negative polarity leader spots. The magnetic inversion between these parts of the group is driving the increased flare production and is close to becoming a magnetic delta configuration. Region 691 (N13W81) started producing flares again after a quiet day yesterday, including an M2/1f at 0133 UTC which was accompanied by a type II sweep. Region 693 (S15W18) continues to be the largest group on the disk but only managed to produce a C2/Sf at 0931 UTC. There is some negative polarity flux emerging in the positive polarity trailer which could trigger more frequent flare activity out of this region.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate, but there is a fair chance for an isolated major flare event over the next three days from Region 696, Region 691, or Region 693.

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. There was one active period from 0900-1200 UTC.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with possible active periods for the next two days (04-05 November) due to coronal hole effects. The CME associated with today's M5 flare is expected to arrive on the third day (06 November) and is expected to increase activity to mostly active levels with occasional periods of minor storm levels.

  觀測的       03 Nov 136
  預測的   04 Nov-06 Nov  135/130/130
  90天平均值        03 Nov 108

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 02 Nov  002/004
  估算值     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/007
  預測的    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  012/015-012/015-025/030