Solar activity was high. Region 696 (N08W50) produced several C-class flares and at 09/1719 UTC the region produced an M8.9/2n Tenflare (1000 sfu), accompanied by Type II (1866 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A 23-degree fragmented filament erupted south of the active region at the same time as the flare. The M8 flare was also accompanied by a very fast asymmetric full halo CME on LASCO imagery with a plane-of-sky speed of near 1800 km/s. Region 696 maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 698 (S09W84) produced several C-class flares during the period. Region 699 (S16E66) was numbered today. The 10 cm flux value observed today was flare enhanced.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 696 is expected to produce M-class flares, and X-class flares are possible.

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm conditions. The period began with active to major storm levels with solar wind speed elevated to 600 km/s. A 34 nT sudden impulse was observed at 09/0931 UTC, which was followed by major to severe storming and an increase of solar wind speed from 600 to 800 km/s. Another sudden impulse (46 nT) was observed at 1852 UTC and was followed by severe storm conditions to the end of the period. The GOES 10 and 12 spacecraft observed magnetopause crossings following the second sudden impulse. Solar wind speed increased from 650 to 800 km/s and Bz turned southward to 30 nT for over an hour. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 07/1910 UTC continued into the period, and the proton flux ended the period at 55 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was at high levels today.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm conditions on 10-11 November. A CME shock associated with the M8 flare observed today should arrive on 11 November. Activity should subside to quiet to active levels on 12 November.

  觀測的       09 Nov 141
  預測的   10 Nov-12 Nov  120/115/110
  90天平均值        09 Nov 110

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 08 Nov  116/189
  估算值     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  085/100
  預測的    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  030/040-045/050-015/015