查看星期六, 7 5月 2005歷史檔案
太陽活動報表
本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2005 May 08 1530 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告
SDF 編號 127 在 07 May 2005 上以 2200Z 發行IA. 太陽活動區域和 06-2100Z到 07-2100Z的活動分析 Solar activity was moderate. Region 756 (S07W88)
produced an impulsive M1 flare at 07/0813 UTC. Region 758 (S07E10)
appears to have simplified somewhat over the past 24 hours and has
generated only a few small B and C-class flares. A new region
rotating onto the disk near NE11 has produced a few B and C-class
flares as well. Sunspots associated with this region have not yet
been reported and the region is not yet numbered.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. B and C-class flares are possible in Regions 756 and
758, as well as the new region near N11E90. Another small M-class
flare is possible from 756.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 06-2100Z 至 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A small Sudden Impulse was observed
at many ground locations (6 nT at Boulder) at about 07/1844 UTC.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active over the next three days
(08-10 May) due to the influence of the CME on 06 May and an
anticipated coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. 事件機率 08 May 至 10 May
| M級 | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X級 | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| 質子 | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| 碳核算金融聯盟 | green | ||
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
觀測的 07 May 100 預測的 08 May-10 May 095/090/090 90天平均值 07 May 093
V. 地磁 A 指數
觀測的 Afr/Ap 06 May 003/004 估算值 Afr/Ap 07 May 005/010 預測的 Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 020/025-020/025-020/030
VI. 地磁活動機率 08 May 至 10 May
| A. 中緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| 小風暴 | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| 特大強風暴 | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. 高緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| 小風暴 | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| 特大強風暴 | 05% | 05% | 05% |
所有時間均採用 UTC 時間
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