查看星期一, 22 8月 2005歷史檔案
太陽活動報表
本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2005 Aug 22 2204 UTC由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理
美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告
SDF 編號 234 在 22 Aug 2005 上以 2200Z 發行IA. 太陽活動區域和 21-2100Z到 22-2100Z的活動分析 Solar activity was high. Region 798 (S11W62) produced
an M5/1n at 22/1727 UTC. This flare was associated with significant
radio output that included a 7100 sfu burst at 2695 MHz, 22000 sfu
at 245 MHz, and type IV sweep activity. This region also produced an
M2/1f flare at 22/0133 UTC that included significant radio output.
Both flares were associated with apparent earth-directed CMEs.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Another major flare is possible in Region 798.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 21-2100Z 至 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. This activity is believed to be the result of a high-speed
coronal hole stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux passed the
10 pfu event threshold at 22/2040 UTC. This event resulted from the
M5 flare discussed in Part IA. Today's observed Penticton 10.7 flux
was flare enhanced. The daily background value reported in Part IV
was estimated to be 105 sfu.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
the next 24 hours. Storm conditions are possible on Aug 24 and 25
due to the CME activity which occurred today. The greater than 10
MeV proton event is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
III. 事件機率 23 Aug 至 25 Aug
| M級 | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X級 | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| 質子 | 80% | 20% | 10% |
| 碳核算金融聯盟 | red | ||
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
觀測的 22 Aug 157 預測的 23 Aug-25 Aug 105/105/100 90天平均值 22 Aug 094
V. 地磁 A 指數
觀測的 Afr/Ap 21 Aug 005/008 估算值 Afr/Ap 22 Aug 010/012 預測的 Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 010/010-020/025-020/035
VI. 地磁活動機率 23 Aug 至 25 Aug
| A. 中緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| 小風暴 | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| 特大強風暴 | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. 高緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 50% | 60% | 60% |
| 小風暴 | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| 特大強風暴 | 05% | 10% | 10% |
所有時間均採用 UTC 時間
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