Solar activity was high. Region 808 (S11W22) produced an X1.1/2n flare at 15/0838 UTC with an associated 450 sfu Tenflare. This region was also responsible for several C and low M-class flares throughout the period. Region 808 has changed very little in the last 24 hours and retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.

Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels. Region 808 is expected to continue to produce M-class activity and still has the potential to produce an isolated X-flare.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. Geomagnetic storming occurred in response to the arrival of a CME associated with the double peak X-flare on 13 September. A 29 nT sudden impulse was observed in the Boulder magnetometer at 15/0907 UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE rose from approximately 600 km/s to near 900 km/s. The most disturbed periods occurred between 12 and 18 UTC following periods of southward Bz to near -15 nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux increased during the shock passage to 235 pfu before declining to around 13 pfu by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with the possibility of isolated major storm periods. Conditions should decrease to quiet to unsettled on 17 and 18 September.

  觀測的       15 Sep 119
  預測的   16 Sep-18 Sep  115/110/110
  90天平均值        15 Sep 092

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 14 Sep  013/025
  估算值     Afr/Ap 15 Sep  025/050
  預測的    Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  018/025-008/015-008/010