Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1305 (N12W12) produced an M1/1n flare at 01/0959Z associated with an Earth-directed CME. The CME became visible in STEREO imagery at 01/1109Z and has an estimated speed of 500 km/s. Region 1302 (N16W41) produced a Sf optical flare immediately before the M1 flare at 01/0917Z. The two events were associated with a pair of Type II Sweeps (620 km/s at 01/0906Z and 850 km/s at 01/0955Z), a Type IV Sweep and a 180 sfu Tenflare. Region 1305 has grown slightly in area and spot number and has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1302 maintains an area of 700 millionths and a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for an X-class event from Regions 1302 and 1305 for the next three days (02-04 October).

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods from 01/0000-0600Z as measured by the Boulder magnetometer. The activity was a result of multiple solar sector boundary crossings. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (02 October) due to effects from the coronal hole high speed stream and possible effects from the CME observed on 29 September. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day two (03 October). Quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for active and isolated minor storm periods are expected on day three (04 October) due to a combination of the CMEs observed on 30 September and 01 October. The two CMEs are due to arrive early and late on day three, respectively.

  觀測的       01 Oct 137
  預測的   02 Oct-04 Oct  140/140/140
  90天平均值        01 Oct 111

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 30 Sep  005/008
  估算值     Afr/Ap 01 Oct  012/012
  預測的    Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  008/008-005/005-015/015