Solar activity was moderate. Region 1339 (N19E45) produced two M-class flares during the past 24 hours; an M2 at 03/2336Z and an M1/Sf at 04/2040Z. Region 1339 continues to dominate the disk in terms of sunspot area (about 1540 millionths) and complexity (Fkc beta-gamma-delta). The region did not show a strong growth or decay trend. A fast, asymmetric full halo CME was observed to enter the LASCO C2 field of view at 03/2312Z and had an estimated plane of sky speed of about 1100 km/s. Observations from the STEREO spacecraft indicate this was a back-sided event. An additional CME was observed in the C2 coronagraph at 04/0248Z off the east limb. STEREO-B coronagraph observations appeared to show this as a full halo CME and post-eruption loops were visible extending above the east limb in the GOES SXI imagery. These observations suggest a source that is just behind the east limb. Region 1338 (S14E28) continues to be of moderate size (about 240 millionths) but was quiet and stable.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Additional M-flares are likely with Region 1339 as the most probable source although the region behind east limb could also contribute. There is a slight chance for an additional major flare event from Region 1339.

The geomagnetic field was quiet. A proton enhancement was observed at the GOES satellites, beginning at about 0100Z and rising to a peak of 3.6 PFU (greater than 10 MeV) at 0905Z. The flux levels slowed decreased thereafter.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (05-06 November). A slight increase in activity is predicted due to a small but favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet levels are expected to prevail for the third day (07 November).

  觀測的       04 Nov 164
  預測的   05 Nov-07 Nov  165/165/170
  90天平均值        04 Nov 126

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 03 Nov  003/003
  估算值     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  007/008
  預測的    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  007/010-007/008-005/005