Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/1212Z from Region 1618 (N08W27). Although this region retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic characteristics, it experienced intermediate penumbral decay. All other regions on the disk remained stable and quiet. Between 1200 and 1300Z, a 29 degree filament was observed in SDO AIA 304 imagery lifting off from the southeast limb. The subsequent CME was observed in STEREO-A and B COR2 imagery beginning around 1400Z. Using geometric localization, a preliminary speed of approximately 550 km/s was obtained. This suggests an arrival at earth early on 27 November.

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for moderate activity, for the entire forecast period (24-26 Nov).

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached 389km/s at 23/2117Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 23/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz was -8.8 nT at 23/2112Z. These values coincided with the arrival of an interplanetary shock at ACE around 23/2112Z from the 20 Nov CME. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached a maximum of 1408 pfu.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to begin at active levels and reach major storm levels early on day one (24 Nov) with the effects from the 20 Nov CME coupled with the anticipated arrival of the 21 Nov CME. On day two (25 Nov), conditions are expected to return to unsettled to active levels due to residual CME effects combined with a coronal hole high speed stream. The unsettled levels may persist into day three (26 November).

  觀測的       23 Nov 126
  預測的   24 Nov-26 Nov 125/120/115
  90天平均值        23 Nov 123

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 22 Nov  001/001
  估算值     Afr/Ap 23 Nov  005/007
  預測的    Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  023/090-013/018-006/005