查看星期五, 25 1月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 Jan 25 1214 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
25 Jan 2013	103	005
26 Jan 2013	101	007
27 Jan 2013	098	013

公告

The solar activity is very low, there were no C-class flares reported during last 5 days. The C-class flares are still possible but not very probable. A partial halo CME was detected by SOHO/LASCO on January 23. The CME was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at about 14:00 UT, had angular width of about 240 degrees and projected speed around 500 km/s. It was associated with a prominence eruption and EIT wave, situated at that moment on the North-East quadrant of the Sun. It seems that the CME was directed somewhat northward of the Sun-Earth line. Therefore, we expect the arrival of only a CME-driven shock at the Earth, probably late on January 26 or early on January 27. It might result in active geomagnetic conditions. The solar wind speed is currently about 400 km/s and slowly increasing what is probably indication of the arrival of the fast solar wind stream from a low-latitude coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating, with occasional intervals of negative values (up to -5 nT). We expect quiet to possibly active geomagnetic conditions in the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：028，基於06個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 24 Jan 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	061
10厘米太陽通量	103
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	001
估計地磁Ap指數	001
估計國際太陽黑子數	039 - 基於14個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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