查看星期六, 18 5月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 May 18 1303 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10公分通量	Ap
18 May 2013	136	014
19 May 2013	135	025
20 May 2013	134	010

公告

Solar activity has been low, NOAA AR 1748 produced a C6.0 flare with peak at 03:45 UT. This remains the most active region, although it is decreasing in complexity, and may lose its delta configuration soon. M-class flares can be expected, and X-class flares remain possible. Proton levels are decreasing, but are still slightly over the threshold for 10 MeV. A shock arrived to the Earth at 00:30 UT, it corresponds to the CME from May 15. It arrived later than expected, which can happen for glancing blow events. A short sheath was seen right after the shock. A solar wind speed of 450 km/s and Bz up to -15 nT caused Kp = 5, between 00:00 UT and 06:00UT, while the local Dourbes K value went up to 4. The CME from May 17 is expected to arrive around noon on May 19 and cause up to major geomagnetic storms.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：088，基於08個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 17 May 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	200
10厘米太陽通量	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	012
估計地磁Ap指數	012
估計國際太陽黑子數	122 - 基於14個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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