查看星期六, 29 6月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 Jun 29 1219 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
29 Jun 2013	103	037
30 Jun 2013	103	030
01 Jul 2013	106	007

公告

Solar activity has been eruptive during the past 24 hours, featuring one C1.6 flare from NOAA 11778, peaking at 17:05 UT on June 28. More C flares are possible within the next 48 hours, with a slight chance for an M flare. Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed showed a generally decreasing trend from about 400 km/s to 350 km/s, until about 3h UT on June 29 when this trend reversed, with current solar wind speeds around 400 km/s. The IMF fluctuated around 12 nT throughout the period. K Dourbes has been at minor storm levels (K Dourbes = 5) between 17h and 19h UT on June 28, and again from 4h UT on June 29 till 8h UT on June 29. K Dourbes levels have been active (K Dourbes = 4) since then. NOAA Kp has reached higher levels: Kp = 5 between 21h UT on June 28 and 0h UT on June 29, Kp = 6 between 0h and 3h UT, Kp = 7 between 3h and 6h UT, and Kp = 5 between 6h and 9h UT. This geomagnetic activity is due to an extended Bz excursion of around -10 nT from 18h UT on June 28 till now. Minor storm levels (K Dourbes = 5) are possible on June 29. On June 30, quiet to active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 5) are expected due to an expected coronal hole high speed stream, with a possible minor storm around the end of June 30 or early on July 1st, due to a glancing blow from the CME of 02:00 UT on June 28.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：050，基於07個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 28 Jun 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	088
10厘米太陽通量	101
AK Chambon La Forêt	046
AK Wingst	023
估計地磁Ap指數	025
估計國際太陽黑子數	051 - 基於15個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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