查看星期四, 21 11月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 Nov 21 1222 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
21 Nov 2013	140	001
22 Nov 2013	138	001
23 Nov 2013	138	001

公告

NOAA AR 1893 produced a M1.2 flare on November 21, peaking at 1111 UT. Very few information is currently available on this event, but it seems that, besides a weak type III burst no other radio emission is associated with it. Coronagraphic observations are not yet available, but SDO data hint at a CME signature. Owing to the position of AR 1893 on the west limb, a CME, if confirmed, would very likely not be geoeffective. We foresee mostly eruptive conditions for the next 48 hours, with C class flares possible from NOAA ARs 1893, 1897 and 1899. A small sunspot group emerged north of AR 1899, but it is too soon to evaluate its flaring capacity for the forecast period. An extra isolated M flare is not completely excluded from NOAA AR 1893 before it rotates behind the west limb. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 48 hours. All CMEs observed in the past 24 hours appear to be non geoeffective, including a partial halo CME, observed by LASCO on Nov. 21 at 0125 UT (backside event).

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：051，基於08個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 20 Nov 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	074
10厘米太陽通量	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	004
估計地磁Ap指數	003
估計國際太陽黑子數	056 - 基於21個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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