查看星期五, 6 12月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 Dec 06 1253 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
06 Dec 2013	150	007
07 Dec 2013	152	018
08 Dec 2013	153	011

公告

The GOES X-ray background radiation is at the C-level. Several C-class flares were observed during the past 24h, mainly in NOAA AR 1909 and in the returning regions on the east limb. We expect more C-flares, especially from these east limb regions, with a small chance for an M-class flare. A large scale filament eruption was observed on December 04, starting from 11:00 UT. This resulted in a slow CME, mainly oriented towards the north. Another filament erupted in AR 1909 around 21 UT on December 5th. While there is a gap in LASCO data, COR2-A images clearly show the associated slow CME. The activity on the east limb also resulted in several CMEs towards the SE (as seen from LASCO). We expect unsettled to active conditions (up to K=4) on December 7 due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream. This coronal hole, which seems to have increased in size in the last 24h, passed the central meridian on December 4. Afterwards, geomagnetic conditions should return to quiet conditions until December 9th when Earth may feel the influence from the ICME associated with the filament eruption in AR 1909. A glancing blow from the east limb CMEs is also possible.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：065，基於14個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 05 Dec 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	148
10厘米太陽通量	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
估計地磁Ap指數	003
估計國際太陽黑子數	078 - 基於12個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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