查看星期四, 26 12月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 Dec 26 1348 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
26 Dec 2013	125	008
27 Dec 2013	128	013
28 Dec 2013	128	004

公告

There were six C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours, released by NOAA AR 11928, 11936, 11934, and 11931. The brightest one was a C2.2 flare from AR 11931 peaking at 07:02 UT on December 26. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (around 80%) and for M flares around 30%. The > 10 MeV proton flux as observed by GOES13 started rising around 9h UT on December 26, right after the long duration C1.3 flare produced by AR 11936. It is currently still rising, but it is not expected to exceed the threshold level of 10 pfu. During the past 24 hours, solar wind speed as observed by ACE has varied between about 260 and 300 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has decreased from about 11 to about 3 nT. Geomagnetic activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). Due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream, quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 5) are expected in the second half of December 26 and on December 27. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on December 28.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：065，基於11個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 25 Dec 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	123
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	006
估計國際太陽黑子數	065 - 基於19個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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