查看星期日, 29 12月 2013歷史檔案
SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告
發布時間: 2013 Dec 29 1325 UTC
SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報
太陽閃焰
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
地磁
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
太陽質子
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec 2013 | 138 | 004 |
| 30 Dec 2013 | 143 | 007 |
| 31 Dec 2013 | 143 | 004 |
公告
There were one M flare and nine C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours. The M3.1 flare was released by NOAA AR 11936, and peaked at 07:56 UT on December 29. The probability for C flares over the next 48 hours is very high (around 95%) and for M flares around 55%. There is a slight chance for an X flare, especially from AR 11936. The > 10 MeV proton flux as observed by GOES13 started rising near 18:50 UT on December 28. It exceeded the threshold level of 10 pfu around 21:50 UT, and attained a peak value of 29 pfu at 23:15 UT. It went under the 10 pfu threshold again at 7:50 UT on December 29, and is further decreasing. The > 50 MeV and > 100 MeV proton flux have also increased, but have not exceeded the 10 pfu threshold. This proton event is most probably associated with the halo CME first observed by LASCO C2 at 17:36 UT on December 28, which is probably linked to a backsided eruption. A warning condition for further proton storms is issued. Around 13h UT on December 28, the solar wind speed as observed by ACE suddenly increased above its plateau of around 300 km/s, and gradually rose further to a plateau of around 370 km/s. During the past 24 hours, the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field varied between about 3 nT and 9 nT. A continuation of nominal solar wind conditions is expected on December 29-31. Geomagnetic activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp between 1 and 2). Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 29, 30, and 31, with a slight chance of active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) in the first half of December 30 (in case the Earth suffers a glancing blow from the CME first observed by LASCO C2 at 7:36 UT on December 26).
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：087，基於23個觀測站。太陽活動指數 28 Dec 2013
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | /// |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 135 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 006 |
| AK Wingst | 002 |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 002 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 069 - 基於25個觀測站 |
顯著活動摘要
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0749 | 0756 | 0800 | S18E01 | M3.1 | 1N | 110 | --/1936 | V/2III/2 |
由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理
所有時間均採用 UTC 時間
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