查看星期五, 3 1月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Jan 03 1220 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
03 Jan 2014	160	010
04 Jan 2014	163	017
05 Jan 2014	163	008

公告

The Sun produced seven C flares and one M flare during the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 1944 was responsible for most of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 1944 has grown in size and evolved to a beta-gamma region. NOAA AR 1936 shows some decay and is approaching the west limb. More M flares are possible (probability 50%), especially from NOAA ARs 1936 and 1944. There is a slight chance for an X flare (15%). We maintain the warning condition for proton events. Solar wind speed measured by ACE reached a maximum of 650 km/s, but has now declined to about 500 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field declined from 8 to 4 nT, with a Bz- component varying between -6 and +5 nT. Estimated NOAA Kp and local K_Izmiran reached a maximum of 5 due to the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled (Kp and K_Izmiran 2 to 3). Unsettled to minor storm conditions (local K 3 to 4) are possible due to the possible arrival of the CMEs of December 29 and December 31.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：100，基於07個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 02 Jan 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	023
估計地磁Ap指數	024
估計國際太陽黑子數	097 - 基於18個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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