查看星期一, 10 2月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Feb 10 1311 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
10 Feb 2014	167	010
11 Feb 2014	168	005
12 Feb 2014	170	008

公告

The solar flaring activity is decreasing in last few days. During the past 24 hours four C-class flares and an isolated M class flare were observed. The M1.0 flare which peaked at 16:00 UT on February 9, originated in the active region right behind the east-south-east solar limb. It was accompanied by coronal dimmings, an EIT wave, an erupting prominence and a post-eruption arcade. The associated full halo CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 16:00 UT on February 9. Due to the source region position, we do not expect this CME to arrive at the Earth. From the currently available data, the prominence eruption (in the north-east quadrant of the Sun) observed at about 05:30 UT on February 10 does not seem to be associated with the Earth directed CME. Three out of seven, currently numbered sunspot groups visible on the solar disc, have beta- gamma configurations of the photospheric magnetic field, and still growing. Catania sunspot groups 27 and 28 (NOAA ARs 1968 and 1967 respectively) have rotated behind the west solar limb. Due to the close to the solar limb position of these groups we still keep warning conditions for a proton event. We expect flaring activity on the C-level, with the possibility of an isolated M-class flare. The solar wind speed is currently around 460 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is stable amounting about 5-6 nT. We expect quiet to unsettled (K<4) geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：098，基於09個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 09 Feb 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	169
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	021
估計地磁Ap指數	021
估計國際太陽黑子數	104 - 基於11個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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