Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 26/1501Z from Region 1982 (S10W49). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 390 km/s at 25/2203Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/1255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/1725Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 26/0010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 288 pfu.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (28 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Mar). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (27 Feb), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Mar).

  觀測的       26 Feb 178
  預測的   27 Feb-01 Mar 180/180/175
  90天平均值        26 Feb 158

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 25 Feb  003/004
  估算值     Afr/Ap 26 Feb  006/008
  預測的    Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  014/018-012/015-008/008