查看星期四, 15 5月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 May 15 1251 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
15 May 2014	163	009
16 May 2014	160	009
17 May 2014	158	006

公告

The strongest flare in the past 24 hours was C8.3 flare peaking at 15:04 UT on May 14.The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 2056) which currently has beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. No clear signatures of CME possibly associated with this flare were observed in the coronagraph data. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. We expect C-class flares and possibly also an isolated M-class flares. The flaring activity is expected, in particular, from the Catania sunspot groups 43, 46, 47 (NOAA ARs 2056, 2058 and 2060, respectively) and newly emerged NOAA AR 2063. All these active regions (with an exception of NOAA AR 2063) are currently situated in the western solar hemisphere, a major eruption in one of them may lead to a proton event, so we issue warning condition for a proton event. The solar wind speed is low (about 350 km/s), and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is stable having value of about 6 nT. The fast flow associated with the small equatorial corona hole which reached the central meridian on May 12 is expected to arrive at the Earth today, although its arrival is not very probable. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：105，基於16個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 14 May 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	005
估計地磁Ap指數	005
估計國際太陽黑子數	114 - 基於22個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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