查看星期二, 19 8月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Aug 19 1234 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
19 Aug 2014	116	015
20 Aug 2014	121	012
21 Aug 2014	125	007

公告

Solar activity has been low with just two C flares at the start of the reporting period. The largest one was a C1.8 originating from NOAA AR 2147, peaking at 13:55 UT. The other one a C1.2 flare from NOAA AR 2139 peaking at 16:56 UT. No earth directed CME's have been recorded. Solar activity is expected to remain at similar low levels over the next days. Solar wind conditions were steady and nominal until the arrival of a moderate shock this morning around 6:00 UT. Solar wind speed has increased since then from 290 km/s before the shock to around 380 km/s at present with a peak above 430 km/s in between. Total magnetic field increased from around to 7 nT to around 12nT presently with peaks above 13 nT. Bz was variable, mostly positive but with negative values peaking around -11nT. Temperature and density have also increased. The conditions are likely due to an earlier then expected arrival of the August 15 CME. Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet to unsettled so far (NOAA Kp mostly 1 but reaching K=3 just recently and local K Dourbes at most 2). Under the continued influence of the CME arrival, elevated solar wind conditions and periods of active geomagnetic conditions should be anticipated during the following day, with minor geomagnetic storm conditions possible. These will settle afterwards to unsettled and quiet to unsettled conditions.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：067，基於14個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 18 Aug 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	111
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	077 - 基於21個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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