Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 11/1526Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 404 km/s at 11/0248Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/2252Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/0356Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 28 pfu at 11/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 154 pfu.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Sep), active to severe storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (14 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and two (12 Sep, 13 Sep) and are expected to cross threshold on day three (14 Sep).

  觀測的       11 Sep 151
  預測的   12 Sep-14 Sep 152/150/150
  90天平均值        11 Sep 129

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 10 Sep  009/009
  估算值     Afr/Ap 11 Sep  012/012
  預測的    Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  028/040-037/060-018/025