查看星期四, 25 9月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Sep 25 1232 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
25 Sep 2014	150	013
26 Sep 2014	155	016
27 Sep 2014	160	010

公告

Solar activity has been low, with just a couple of C flares. The strongest one originating, as expected, from NOAA AR 2172, peaking at 17:50 UT at C7 level. A new region (NOAA unnumbered) has emerged with current location near N15W00 developing fast both in size and complexity. This region certainly adds to the expected C flaring from NOAA AR 2172 as well as to the M flare potential. We thus expect flaring on the C level with the chance for M flares increasing further, depending on the new region development. With the filament situated closely to the west of the new region, further development of this region may also lead to the destabilization and eruption of that filament in the following days. An asymmetric halo CME is visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images from 21:12 UT onwards. It is primarily directed northward. Despite the main eruption taking place within a data gap, STEREO B/EUVI 195 images indicate that the eruption originated from NOAA AR 2158. The event is thus backsided and very similar to the September 22, 6:25UT event. Solar wind speed rose slightly from about 420 km/s to around 450 km/s. After reaching a peak of 8.5 nT around 18:00 UT total magnetic field decreased to around 6.5 nT currently. Bz reached negative peaks of over -7nT around 18:00 UT but is currently within a more restricted range of about +-4nT. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions with active periods have been recorded over the reporting period (NOAA Kp as well as local K Dourbes 3-4) settling locally to quiet conditions more recently (local K Dourbes 1-2 after 3:00 UT). Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly enhanced over the next days with periods of active geomagnetic conditions possible.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：103，基於17個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 24 Sep 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	024
估計地磁Ap指數	026
估計國際太陽黑子數	073 - 基於17個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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