查看星期四, 9 10月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Oct 09 1335 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
09 Oct 2014	126	020
10 Oct 2014	127	010
11 Oct 2014	125	008

公告

During last 24 hours 3 M-class and 11 C-class flares were reported, all originating from the Catania sunspot group 67 (NOAA AR 2182) which has rather simple, beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The strongest flare observed was the M1.4 flare which peaked at 01:58 UT this morning. The flare was associated with the coronal wave and possibly also CME (it will be confirmed once SOHO LASCO and STEREO coronagraph data become available). We expect flaring activity of the C-class and possibly also of the M-class level. Since the source of the recent flaring activity, Catania sunspot group 67 (NOAA AR 2182) is situated rather close to the west solar limb (about S16 W49), we issue warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed is still rather low and it is fluctuating around 350 km/s. Due to the sector change, observed at about 05:30 UT on October 08, the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is elevated and amounts about 10 nT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating with rather long intervals of its negative value (lowest recorded value was about -8 nT). Due to the negative intervals of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field we had unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions (K=4 reported by local station at Dourbes and Kp=4 reported by NOAA) during past 24 hours and we expect such geomagnetic conditions to continue in the coming hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：049，基於15個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 08 Oct 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	127
10厘米太陽通量	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	010
估計地磁Ap指數	009
估計國際太陽黑子數	058 - 基於19個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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