發布時間: 2014 Oct 17 1210 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2014 | 139 | 008 |
| 18 Oct 2014 | 139 | 007 |
| 19 Oct 2014 | 139 | 007 |
During the past 24 hours, one M flare and four C flares were released by the backside region close to the east limb that produced both M flares on October 14 (probably this region is the return of M-flaring region NOAA AR 2173). The M4.3 flare peaked at 13:03 UT on October 16. In the next 48 hours, M flares are possible, especially from the region near the east limb that has produced the three M flares. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speeds observed by ACE varied between about 380 and 500 km/s, with current speed values around 435 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 1.5 and 7.5 nT, with current values around 5.5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions during the last 24 hours were quiet to active (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 17, 18 and 19.
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數(ISN):044,基於12個觀測站。
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | /// |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 139 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 018 |
| AK Wingst | 008 |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 009 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 050 - 基於17個觀測站 |
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 |
|---|
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