查看星期二, 21 10月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Oct 21 1342 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
21 Oct 2014	190	012
22 Oct 2014	193	012
23 Oct 2014	195	013

公告

Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) continues to grow and maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. It produced four M-class flares in the past 24 hours, the strongest of them being the M4.5 flare peaking at 16:37 UT. We expect flaring activity mostly on the M-level in this group, with a good chance for an X-class flare. As the Catania sunspot group 88 approaches the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event. An active region at the north-east limb (no sunspots are still visible) produced several flares including the C6.3 flare peaking at 10:58 UT today. It may produce an isolated M-class flare as well. A weak partial halo CME (angular width around 200 degrees) was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 19:12 UT on October 20. The CME was very weak and disappeared before reaching the LASCO C3 field of view, so we do not expect it to arrive at the Earth. The source region of the CME is the eruption in the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) and in the region to the south-west of it, starting around 18:40 UT, accompanied with coronal dimmings and the M1.4 flare peaking at 19:02 UT. The solar wind speed is currently high (around 640 km/s) and the interplanetary magnetic filed (IMF) magnitude is around 7 nT. Due to elevated values of the IMF magnitude and predominantly southward IMF direction, the K index reached 5 during one interval yesterday evening (according to Dourbes, IZMIRAN, and NOAA). Currently the north-south IMF component Bz is fluctuating around zero, so we expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K < 4) in the coming hours, possibly with isolated intervals of active conditions (K = 4).

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：078，基於11個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 20 Oct 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	171
10厘米太陽通量	185
AK Chambon La Forêt	041
AK Wingst	028
估計地磁Ap指數	031
估計國際太陽黑子數	085 - 基於21個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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