查看星期五, 14 11月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Nov 14 1254 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
14 Nov 2014	155	010
15 Nov 2014	160	011
16 Nov 2014	163	013

公告

The solar activity is still low with only few C-class flares reported during the last 24 hours. The strongest reported flare was C 5.4 flare (peaking at 07:48 UT) this morning. There was no Earth-directed CMEs observed during last 24 hours. We expect C-class flares and possibly also M-class flares in particular from the NOAA AR 2209. Due to the current, close-to-the-west-limb position of the NOAA AR 2205, a major eruption from this active region may lead to a proton event, so we maintain the warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed is currently about 580 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is slightly elevated and it amounts about 10 nT. Today's ACE solar wind data indicate possible arrival of the sector boundary, which might be followed with the expected arrival of the fast flow (from the extended low latitude coronal hole which reached the central meridian yesterday morning) on the November 15 or early in the November 16. The situation will be more clear as more data will arrive in the coming hours. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled and expected to remain so in the coming hours. However, the expected arrival of the fast solar wind on November 15 or early in November 16 might induce unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：083，基於10個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 13 Nov 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	004
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	085 - 基於15個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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