查看星期五, 19 12月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Dec 19 1223 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
19 Dec 2014	210	008
20 Dec 2014	210	029
21 Dec 2014	210	014

公告

The Sun released two M flares and seven high C flares during the past 24 hours. Most flares were produced by NOAA AR 2242 and 2241. An M6.9 flare was released by AR 2241 and peaked at 21:58 UT on December 18. An associated Type II radio burst was observed by the Palehua station on Hawaii, with an estimated shock speed of 664 km/s. LASCO C3 shows images of a probably associated halo CME after a data gap, first observed at 00:27 UT on December 19. Based on the estimated Type II shock speed, it is estimated that this CME will arrive at Earth around 0h UT on December 22. The second M flare was an M1.3 flare released by AR 2237 around 9:44 UT on December 19. There is a chance for proton storms in the days ahead. During the past 24 hours, solar wind speeds observed by ACE were nominal between about 330 and 430 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between about 6 to 8 nT. During the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 19. Active (K Dourbes = 4) to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5) are possible on December 20 and 21 in view of the expected arrival of the halo CME from December 17.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：119，基於07個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 18 Dec 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	197
10厘米太陽通量	213
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	006
估計國際太陽黑子數	123 - 基於12個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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