發布時間: 2015 Mar 13 1247 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar 2015 | 124 | 009 |
| 14 Mar 2015 | 122 | 010 |
| 15 Mar 2015 | 120 | 011 |
Over the past 24 hours there were several C-class flares and 4 M-class flares which were produced by NOAA AR (Active Region) 2297, which is currently located at S20, and is classified as a Beta-Gamma-Delta region under the Mount Wilson magnetic classification system. The largest flares recorded over the past 24 hours, all produced by AR 2297, were an M4.2 flare on 2015-Mar-12 peaking at 14:08UT, an M2.7 flare on 2015-Mar-12 peaking at 21:51UT, an M1.2 flare on 2015-Mar-13 peaking at 04:01UT and an M1.8 flare on 2015-Mar-13 peaking at 06:07UT. AR 2297 has shown little magnetic evolution with a small amount of flux emergence, which may lead to future eruptions. AR 2299 rotated into view and exhibits a small amount of activity. AR 2298 has shown little activity. There were no discernible Earth directed CMEs over the past 24 hours. There is a large filament located between S15W90 and S50E20, however this has remained, and appears, stable. The solar wind speed has remained roughly constant over the past 24 hours around 425 km/s. The total magnetic field has slightly increased from 5 nT to 7 nT, and the Bz component has remained mainly positive over the past 24 hours. The Bz has ranged between +6 and -9 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-3 (NOAA) and local K index 0-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A transient coronal hole is currently located at S05W50, this may produce enhanced solar wind speeds. AR 2297 and AR 2299 produced several small CMEs over the past 24 hours.
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數(ISN):058,基於19個觀測站。
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | /// |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 127 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 011 |
| AK Wingst | 007 |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 008 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 048 - 基於24個觀測站 |
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1138 | 1150 | 1202 | ---- | M1.6 | 01/2297 | |||
| 12 | 1209 | 1214 | 1218 | ---- | M1.4 | 220 | 01/2297 | ||
| 12 | 1350 | 1408 | 1413 | S15E06 | M4.2 | 2B | 53 | 01/2297 | VI/1III/2V/2IV/1 |
| 12 | 2144 | 2151 | 2156 | ---- | M2.7 | 230 | 01/2297 | III/3V/3II/1 | |
| 13 | 0347 | 0401 | 0416 | ---- | M1.2 | 01/2297 | |||
| 13 | 0549 | 0607 | 0612 | ---- | M1.8 | 01/2297 | III/2 |
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