查看星期五, 19 6月 2015歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2015 Jun 19 1230 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
19 Jun 2015	150	008
20 Jun 2015	150	007
21 Jun 2015	150	046

公告

Solar flaring activity was moderate with a long duration M3.0 flare originating from Catania group 92 (NOAA 2371) peaking around 17:36UT. It was associated with a dimming and an EUV wave and a corresponding asymmetric halo in SoHO/LASCO coronagraph images. Several further C flares were recorded from Catania groups 92 (including a C8.1 flare peaking at 9:27UT) as well as 87 (NOAA 2371 and 2367 respectively). Catania group 92 has a complex beta-gamma-delta configuration while also Catania group 87 deserves continued attention. Flaring at M level is likely for the next days from those two sources. The 10 MeV proton flux remained above the event threshold for most of the afternoon of June 18. Since around midnight flux values are below the event threshold and further declining. The asymmetric full halo CME associated to the M3.0 flare is visible in SoHO/LASCO data, from 17:24 UT (June 18) onwards in the C2 field of view. The bulk of the mass is expelled in Eastern direction off the Sun-Earth line (with the source region located at longitude -45 degrees approximately at the time of the event) with a projected speed of around 1000km/s (Cactus software is underestimating the speed). Impact of this CME on Earth is currently expected before UT noon June 21. Another CME is visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 data from 8:25UT onwards (after a datagap). It is directed predominantly southward and associated with a filament eruption in the south-east quadrant. We await further data for assessment of possible Earth-directed CME component. Solar wind conditions are gradually further restoring to nominal. Solar wind speed decreased from around 420 km/s to around 370 km/s. total magnetic field was in the 4-5nT range with variable Bz. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3, local K Dourbes 0-3). Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24-36 hours, with afterwards the likely impact of the June 18 17:24UT CME arriving around or before noon June 21 with possible associated geomagnetic storm conditions.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：053，基於06個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 18 Jun 2015

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	010
估計地磁Ap指數	010
估計國際太陽黑子數	063 - 基於23個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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