發布時間: 2015 Jul 06 1230 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 06 Jul 2015 | 131 | 019 |
| 07 Jul 2015 | 135 | 012 |
| 08 Jul 2015 | 138 | 008 |
NOAA 2381 developed rapidly and has some mixed magnetic polarities. It was the source of six C-class flares and the strongest event of the period, an M1.0 flare peaking at 08:44UT. The five other sunspot regions are small and quiet. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections have been observed.
C-class flaring is expected, with a good chance on a low-level M-class flare.
Earth is still under the influence of the high speed, low density stream of the negative coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed varied mostly between 500 and 600 km/s, with Bz varying between -6 and +6 nT. Episodes with active geomagnetic conditions were recorded during the early hours of 06 July. A positive equatorial CH is approaching the central meridian.
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a good chance on an active geomagnetic episode.
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數(ISN):105,基於21個觀測站。
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | /// |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 125 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 024 |
| AK Wingst | /// |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 027 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 113 - 基於32個觀測站 |
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 | 0824 | 0844 | 0859 | N17E42 | M1.0 | SN | --/2381 |
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