查看星期二, 21 7月 2015歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2015 Jul 21 1230 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
21 Jul 2015	091	016
22 Jul 2015	090	012
23 Jul 2015	090	016

公告

The two currently visible sunspot groups are magnetically simple and quiet. No C-class flares or earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. Some filaments in particular near the east and southwest limb are present.

Quiet flaring conditions are expected, with a small chance on an isolated C-class flare.

Starting around 23:00UT, solar wind speed gradually increased from a steady 300 km/s to values fluctuating between 370 and 430 km/s between 05:00 and 09:00UT. Current speed varies between 360 and 400 km/s. Bz has been oscillating mostly between -8 and +10 nT since about midnight. These are likely the limited effects of the moderate speed stream from the positive trans-equatorial coronal hole (CH). So far, only unsettled geomagnetic conditions have been recorded. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) remained mostly directed away from the Sun. A positive CH between latitude 25 to 40 degrees north is transiting the central meridian and may affect the geomagnetic field starting 25 July.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, but with a chance on an active geomagnetic episode from the CH's wind stream on 21-22 July and the possible glancing blow from the 19 July CME late on 22 or on 23 July.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：040，基於21個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 20 Jul 2015

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	045
10厘米太陽通量	093
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	004
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	043 - 基於24個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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