查看星期三, 19 8月 2015歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2015 Aug 19 1230 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
19 Aug 2015	089	024
20 Aug 2015	090	015
21 Aug 2015	089	008

公告

Solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. There have been a few low magnitude B-class flares and no C-class, or greater, flares. Active Region (AR) 2403 (Macintosh:Cso/Type:Beta) recently rotated into view on the east limb and produced the largest flare, a B4.8 class flare peaking at 05:38 UT on 2015-Aug-19. The region has shown little evolution and appears stable. AR 2402 (Macintosh:Axx/Type:Alpha) has evolved into view and is currently located at N05W45, the region appears stable and small. No evident Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were produced in the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain relatively low over the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed has remained roughly constant over the past 24 hours, around 450 km/s. The total magnetic field has been slowly growing from 5 nT to 9 nT, and the Bz component has been largely negative, fluctuating between +2 nT and -6 nT over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active over the past 24 hours, with the Local K index (Dourbes) reaching 4 and the Kp index (NOAA) also reaching 4 throughout the morning (2015-Aug-19), these conditions were/are probably caused by the last of the high speed stream created by a geoeffective coronal hole, and possibly from the CME/shock front produced at 09:36 UT on 2015-Aug-14, although this was anticipated to reach Earth later today. The continued presence of the coronal hole is likely to cause continued unsettled conditions, but should be passing soon. The arrival of the CME/shock front produced 2015-Aug-14, if it has not already passed, may also enhance geo-activity. However, a glancing blow is expected at most.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：054，基於11個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 18 Aug 2015

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	089
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	010
估計地磁Ap指數	009
估計國際太陽黑子數	041 - 基於18個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

<< 回到每日概觀