查看星期五, 4 12月 2020歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2020 Dec 04 1230 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Quiet

公告

Solar activity was low with the largest flare of the period a C1.4 flare peaking at 23:59UT from NOAA AR 2790. There are 3 spotted regions on disk all of simple alpha configuration. A new region has also rotated over the South East limb but as far as currently visible it appears simple and spotless. Further C flares are probable.

There were no new Earth directed CME's observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10MeV proton flux are now still only weakly enhanced (max 1 pfu), with a general decaying trend. The greater than 2MeV electron flux did only briefly exceed the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the diurnal maximum. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels over the next days. A rise is possible should we see a glancing blow of the December 1 CME.

Accuracy of current DSCOVR measurements of Solar wind density, speed and temperature, seem to suffer from low density conditions. Based also on ACE measurement Earth is believed to be in a nominal slow Solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was around a nominal 5nT with a variable and unremarkable North-South orientation. The phi angle was mostly in the negative sector (towards the Sun). Essentially nominal Solar wind conditions are expected with still a slight chance for perturbations associated to a possible glancing blow of the December 1 CME.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 0-2). Geomagnetic conditions could possibly become active or show minor geomagnetic storm conditions should a glancing blow from the December 1 CME still occur.

太陽活動指數 03 Dec 2020

顯著活動摘要

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