查看星期二, 27 4月 2021歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2021 Apr 27 1235 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
27 Apr 2021	080	011
28 Apr 2021	079	007
29 Apr 2021	079	007

公告

X-ray flux remained below C level during the period. Catania group 91 (NOAA region 2821) and Catania group 92 (NOAA region 2820) grew but remained quiet. These two regions remain the most prominent regions on disc and are a likely source for C-class flaring with a slight chance for an M-class flare.

A long filament stretching across the central meridian in the Southern hemisphere erupted as seen in SDO/AIA 304 images from around 13:00UT. An associated Westward (from STEREO A perspective) CME is seen from around 20:24 in STEREO A COR2 images. In (incomplete) SoHO/LASCO coronagraph images so far only a weak Southward signature is seen around 23:12 UT. Given the location of the filament and the direction as seen in STEREO A COR2 a possible Earth directed component or a glancing blow is possible. The CME speed is estimated to be again slow and a possible arrival may not be distinguishable from the arrival of the CME from April 25 which may be expected around April 31/May 1. Updates will be provided when more data become available.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu event threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels during next days.

A patchy coronal hole region in the northern hemisphere is started cross the central meridian. It may influence Solar wind starting from May 1 onwards.

Solar wind remained enhanced with the lasting passage of the April 22 CME. Solar wind speed reached just over 500 km/s again during the period but seems now to be reducing towards 450 km/s. The magnetic field was at around 5nT with a phi angle indicating magnetic field orientation mostly towards the Sun. Solar wind conditions are expected to return to slow solar wind conditions. By end of April 31, start of May 1 we may see solar wind perturbations by a combination of enhanced speed associated to the coronal hole currently transiting the central meridian, and magnetic field perturbations due to passing magnetic clouds from the April 25 and 26 CMEs.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes 0-3 and NOAA Kp 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：053，基於23個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 26 Apr 2021

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	077
10厘米太陽通量	080
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	015
估計地磁Ap指數	015
估計國際太陽黑子數	048 - 基於31個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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