查看星期二, 11 5月 2021歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2021 May 11 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
11 May 2021	076	005
12 May 2021	078	007
13 May 2021	080	017

公告

Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 2822 (Catania sunspot group 93) has a Beta-gamma magnetic configuration and produced only low-Beta class flares over the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 2823 (Catania sunspot group 94) is smaller and less active producing only two low-Beta class flares in the past 24 hours. A new, yet unnumbered AR is expected to turn the disk in the coming days, hence its magnetic configuration cannot yet be accessed. Solar activity is expect to be at a low level over the next 24 hours, with one or more C-class flares possible and a very small probability of an M-class flare.

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery. An Earth-bound CME was detected at 16:00 UT 9 May and is expected to arrive late on 12 May.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this level during the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Earth is under the influence of the slow solar wind. The solar wind speed ranged between 300 and 400 km/s over the past 24 hours. The Bz component of the magnetic field fluctuated between -5 and +5 nT during 10 May and show a stable increase from 0 to +5 nT for the first half of 11 May. The interplanetary magnetic field angle fluctuated significantly but was predominantly in the negative sector (directed toward the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to reflect a slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours. However, an ICME is expected to reach Earth later on the 12 May and it is expected to affect the solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-2 and local K Dourbes 1-3) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet over the next 24 hours. However, the arrival of the expected ICME late on 12 May is estimated to increase the geomagnetic conditions to moderate and possibly active levels during the second half of the 12 May.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：030，基於20個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 10 May 2021

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	033
10厘米太陽通量	077
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
估計地磁Ap指數	008
估計國際太陽黑子數	031 - 基於32個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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