查看星期六, 22 5月 2021歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2021 May 22 1230 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
22 May 2021	074	007
23 May 2021	076	007
24 May 2021	078	007

公告

NOAA AR 2824 (Catania 96, alpha magnetic field configuration) has produced 6 C-class flares in the past 24 hours, the strongest being a C6.1 peaking at 02:56 UT. More C-class flares are highly likely, and M-class flares are possible.

There could be a CME partially directed towards the Earth, associated with the C-class flaring activity mentioned above (around 08:00 UT), there is not enough coronagraph data yet to do a better assessment, more information will be given as the data becomes available.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained barely below the 1000 pfu in the past 24 hours, it is expected to decrease in the coming 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels in the past 24 hours, but close to the moderate limit, it may reach this level before decreasing in the coming 24 hours.

The effect of the high speed solar wind (HSS) stream at Earth is vanishing. The speed is around 440 km/s, with interplanetary magnetic field magnitudes of 3 nT. The polarity of the magnetic field was mostly negative (towards the Sun). A further decrease in solar wind speed is expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet (KDourbes 1-2, Kp 1-2), similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：015，基於10個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 21 May 2021

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	015
10厘米太陽通量	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	008
估計國際太陽黑子數	013 - 基於25個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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