查看星期四, 15 7月 2021歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2021 Jul 15 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
15 Jul 2021	074	004
16 Jul 2021	076	001
17 Jul 2021	074	001

公告

Solar activity was at very low levels, with only B-class flares produced in the last 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2842 (Catania sunspot group 17) continues to decay, NOAA AR 2843 (Catania sunspot group 18) has lost some magnetic complexity, while NOAA 2841 has now become a plage region. For the next 24 hours the solar activity is expected to remain very low with a small change of a C-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The High Speed Stream (HSS) initially predicted to arrive on July 11, arrived weakened at 09:00UT July 14 and had a minor effect on the solar wind. The solar wind speed increased from 340 to 440 km/s during the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field varied between 1 and 13 nT in the last 24 hours. The Bz was predominantly negative during the last 24 hours, with values varying between -12 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly negative (directed towards the Sun) during the last 24 hours. The solar wind conditions are expected to reflect a slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active both globally and locally (NOAA Kp index and K Dourbes 1-4) over the past 24 hours. This was due to the arrival of the HSS mentioned above. They are expected to be at quiet levels for the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：017，基於17個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 14 Jul 2021

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	037
10厘米太陽通量	072
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	019
估計地磁Ap指數	018
估計國際太陽黑子數	027 - 基於21個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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